Farmers in South Africa are heading into the winter planting season facing surging diesel prices and tightening supplies, both of which have been triggered by the ongoing Middle East conflict. This is threatening the production of wheat, which is the largest commercial crop in Sub-Saharan Africa. For Rossouw Dippenaar, a farmer near Riebeek-West, about 80 kilometers northeast of Cape Town, time is running out. He requires as much as 40,000 liters of diesel to plant his wheat, but has only secured around 6,000 liters because some retailers are limiting purchases to prevent hoarding. “I don’t know what I will do if it doesn’t change in the next two weeks,” he said. “I’m living in hope that it will get better.”
Impact of Middle East Conflict on Global Oil Prices
A five-day halt to US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, announced by President Donald Trump on Monday, eased global oil prices. However, there are no signs of trade normalizing anytime soon. Iran continues to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, restricting shipments from key oil and fertilizer producers like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, and has dismissed Trump’s claims that ceasefire talks are underway. South Africa’s agricultural sector, heavily dependent on fuel and fertilizer, faces the brunt of these disruptions.
The Growing Cost Shock for South African Farmers
Unlike many Sub-Saharan African countries, most of South Africa’s crops are grown on commercial farms, with production heavily reliant on inputs like fuel and fertilizer. For example, Ethiopia produced three times as much wheat as South Africa last season, but it is primarily grown by small-scale farmers. “The combined effects of rising diesel and fertilizer prices present one of the most significant cost shocks to producers in recent years,” said Richard Krige, chairman of Grain SA, which represents corn and wheat farmers. “The impact on farmer viability—and therefore food security—could be severe.”
Soaring Diesel Prices: Implications for Crop Planting
Fuel and fertilizer together account for about half of grain farmers’ production costs in South Africa. Preliminary data suggests that diesel prices will rise by almost half in April. Many farmers have already ordered fertilizers, expecting to pay higher prices when they replenish their supplies. This surge in prices is worrying not only wheat farmers but also sunflower and soybean farmers who need diesel to harvest by the end of the month.
Wheat and Corn Farmers Facing Uncertainty
Wheat, barley, and canola farmers are set to begin planting in April, while corn farmers will start harvesting in late May. However, with surging diesel and fertilizer costs, many of them might reconsider planting decisions. Wheat prices on the South African Futures Exchange in Johannesburg have risen only 5.6% since the start of the conflict, and corn prices have gone up by just 11%. If these prices rise significantly, it could cause inflation in a country where cornmeal and bread are staple foods.
The Uncertainty Around South Africa’s Fuel and Fertilizer Supplies
South Africa, which has seen its refinery capacity halve in recent years, imports most of the fuel it consumes. It also imports 80% of the 2 million tons of fertilizer it uses annually, with a third of this coming from the Middle East. “Our biggest hope is that commodity prices will rise with input costs,” said Johan van Zyl, a farmer in the Western Cape province. “If you’re going to be selling at a low price while it’s expensive to get the crop in the ground, it’s a recipe for disaster, and you will become bankrupt.”
Fuel and Fertilizer Availability: A Growing Concern
While government and industry associations assure that the country has enough fuel and that the regulated diesel wholesale price will only increase on April 1, some filling stations are already running dry or limiting the volume of diesel people can buy. Farming cooperatives like OVK have begun increasing the price they charge for diesel, but the government has stated that it has limited room for intervention.
The Strain on South African Farmers and the Consumer
Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen recently spoke about the effects of global market volatility on the country’s farming sector but failed to mention any measures the government could take to address the issue. Willem de Chavonnes Vrugt, president of Agri SA, pointed out that South Africa’s dependence on imports means that producers will feel the effects of the crisis, which will ultimately end with higher prices for consumers if local production is hindered.
Looking Ahead: Potential Impact on Wheat Production
The first official indication of how wheat production will be affected will come on April 23, when the Crop Estimates Committee releases its report on farmers’ intentions to plant winter cereals for 2026. Farmers, including Dippenaar, say they will need to press ahead with planting regardless of current market conditions. “We just have to plant blindly,” Dippenaar said. “What else can we do?”
